Identifying drivers of change and predicting future land-use impacts in established farmlands

There is growing consensus that global food systems will need to undergo substantial transformations ensure continued security and halt environmental degradation. Such efforts have include more sustainable management of existing farmscapes. Here, we examine drivers cropland transitions between 13 crop commodities cultivated in Kern County, California. We parameterized multinomial logistic regression models choices, using observed data from 2002 2018. then simulated future choices under three scenarios exploring the consequences climate change, water shortages policy response, projected impacts on agroecosystem pressures (water-use, soil erosion, pesticide-use), services (profits, nutrition, carbon sequestration). Agricultural land-use were especially sensitive biophysical factors, profits neighborhood effects. Our results illustrate how change may lead landscape-level replacement by 2050, with likely significant socio-ecological consequences.